As Trump claims, a Biden economy would eviscerate people’s 401K (stock market will be majorly down) and crime will be rampant (not relevant to this post). The US indices are completely telling an opposite story - somebody should tell Trump that we price in expectations (i.e., weighted average values of future outcomes) and hence given the polls, the market seems to be discounting: (a) bad economic outcomes in Biden administration, (b) chances of reversal of tax cuts under Biden administration or (c) Biden presidency.
I am sure none of the above is a non-zero likelihood that is being priced by the market. Given the performance of the market, it seems it is not gonna be a bad ride,
polls were completely wrong last election. so its a bit hard to trust them right now. that said under a trump presidency, this market has been extremely resilient given everything thats happened to us. we’ve definitely outperformed the world at large.
Actually they weren’t. They had hillary up 3% nationwide which is exactly how it turned out. The swing state polling was shoddy but the polls had it close which it was.
The second Comey tied Hillary to Anthony Weiner in the ridiculous email thing i knew Trump had a shot.
the electoral college is pretty stupid though. the intention was never for the public to choose a president, but for independent electors appointed by the state. pretty weird. so its like governors voting for a president?
anywayhs i wish we could vote via app. where we swipe right or left on candidates and policies. with bullet points to sum them up.