Market efficiency and market randomness

[Yayyywork]

thanks for the rundown bchad very interesting

[igor555]

@KMeriwetherD

@purealpha

@KMeriwetherD

This is cute. I was just going over gold for tonight’s session. Gold went on a wild rally today…

What does the crystal ball say about Mexico EWW??

First of all, I would like to go on the record as saying… there is no crystal ball! All TA can do is help you derive evidence to answer questions like “What is the market trying to do?” “How good of a job of that is it doing?” “What might it do next?”

So here is Mexico…

The volume composite is of all of the trading volume since 2014. Of course, since this is an ETF, the fact that there has been some minimal decay should be taken into consideration (although… most of the volume for further back is higher up so does not effect this lower part of the profile anyway). So, what is the market trying to do? It is ranging and trying to price in these outcomes that could be very material for Mexico. I labeled the early year crashes because that was like a reset button for markets. Price discovery had to start over again after that. As you can see, the prices being considered for the current set of fundamentals are found in range #1. However, a surprise would see possibly a push over that “low volume node” and into area #2. However, most likely that LVN will act as resistance because I can’t imagine Hillary would be that awesome for Mexico’s fundamentals. The yellow line is the most highly traded price of the past three years. It is just context… maybe useful, not useful, or at least amusing.

looks like my EKG

[bchad]

Would that be blood pressure on the right?

[Analti_Calte_Equity]

@igor555

@KMeriwetherD

@purealpha

@KMeriwetherD

This is cute. I was just going over gold for tonight’s session. Gold went on a wild rally today…

What does the crystal ball say about Mexico EWW??

First of all, I would like to go on the record as saying… there is no crystal ball! All TA can do is help you derive evidence to answer questions like “What is the market trying to do?” “How good of a job of that is it doing?” “What might it do next?”

So here is Mexico…

The volume composite is of all of the trading volume since 2014. Of course, since this is an ETF, the fact that there has been some minimal decay should be taken into consideration (although… most of the volume for further back is higher up so does not effect this lower part of the profile anyway). So, what is the market trying to do? It is ranging and trying to price in these outcomes that could be very material for Mexico. I labeled the early year crashes because that was like a reset button for markets. Price discovery had to start over again after that. As you can see, the prices being considered for the current set of fundamentals are found in range #1. However, a surprise would see possibly a push over that “low volume node” and into area #2. However, most likely that LVN will act as resistance because I can’t imagine Hillary would be that awesome for Mexico’s fundamentals. The yellow line is the most highly traded price of the past three years. It is just context… maybe useful, not useful, or at least amusing.

looks like my EKG

your heart must be pretty messed up lol

[igor555]

am i going to die?

[Analti_Calte_Equity]

@igor555

am i going to die?

without a doubt

[igor555]

then i want to leave everything i own to the AF trust

[SportBiker]

EMH makes some assumptions about the amount of knowledge already priced into an asset. But what if you don’t have to worry about pricing assets because someone who knows more than you has to make their trades public?

Congress beats the market, and I’m too lazy to measure price differences between their purchase and report dates, but an average retail investor could probably do pretty well mimicking Congressional stock trades. I’m tempted to try it with my gambling (options) portfolio.
WSB stalks Nancy’s trades

[Codtrawler87]

How long after the trade is the information made publicly available?