I would like anyone reading this to confirm whether these are errors in the Notes or not.
- Record Date: Schweser Notes state that this is ‘the date on which all owners of shares will receive the dividend payment on their shares.’
CFAI and every other source that I found makes it clear that this is the date management determine which shareholders are eligible for dividend payments.
- Multistage Dividend Discount Model Example:
Consider a stock with dividends that are expected to grow at 15% per year for two years, after which they are expected to grow at 5% per year, indefinitely. The last dividend paid was $1.00, and ke = 11%. Calculate the value of this stock using the multistage growth model. Schweser Notes calculate the terminal value using P1, which is D2/(k-g). Unless my brain has stopped functioning, it should be P2, which is D3/(k-g) = D2*(1+5%)/(11%-5%)
Can anyone confirm if my line of thinking is correct?
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To value the stock using the multistage dividend discount model (DDM), we need to follow these steps:
Given Information:
-
Last dividend paid (D₀): $1.00
-
Growth rate for the first 2 years (g₁): 15%
-
Growth rate after 2 years (g₂): 5%
-
Required rate of return (kₑ): 11%
Step 1: Calculate the Dividends for the First Two Years
- **Dividend at Year 1 (D₁):**D1=D0×(1+g1)=1.00×(1+0.15)=1.00×1.15=1.15D₁ = D₀ \times (1 + g₁) = 1.00 \times (1 + 0.15) = 1.00 \times 1.15 = 1.15D1=D0×(1+g1)=1.00×(1+0.15)=1.00×1.15=1.15
- **Dividend at Year 2 (D₂):**D2=D1×(1+g1)=1.15×1.15=1.3225D₂ = D₁ \times (1 + g₁) = 1.15 \times 1.15 = 1.3225D2=D1×(1+g1)=1.15×1.15=1.3225
Step 2: Calculate the Stock Price at the End of Year 2 (P₂)
After Year 2, the dividend growth rate changes to a constant 5% indefinitely. We can use the Gordon Growth Model (constant growth DDM) to find the stock price at the end of Year 2:
P2=D3ke−g2P₂ = \frac{D₃}{kₑ - g₂}P2=ke−g2D3
Where:
- D3=D2×(1+g2)D₃ = D₂ \times (1 + g₂)D3=D2×(1+g2) is the dividend in Year 3.
- ke=11%kₑ = 11%ke=11% is the required rate of return.
- g2=5%g₂ = 5%g2=5% is the long-term growth rate.
First, calculate D3D₃D3:
D3=1.3225×1.05=1.388625D₃ = 1.3225 \times 1.05 = 1.388625D3=1.3225×1.05=1.388625
Now calculate P2P₂P2:
P2=1.3886250.11−0.05=1.3886250.06=23.14375P₂ = \frac{1.388625}{0.11 - 0.05} = \frac{1.388625}{0.06} = 23.14375P2=0.11−0.051.388625=0.061.388625=23.14375
Step 3: Calculate the Present Value of the Dividends and the Stock Price
We now discount each dividend and the stock price P2P₂P2 back to the present (time t=0t = 0t=0) using the required rate of return kekₑke.
- **Present value of D1D₁D1:**PV(D1)=1.15(1+0.11)1=1.151.11=1.036\text{PV}(D₁) = \frac{1.15}{(1 + 0.11)^1} = \frac{1.15}{1.11} = 1.036PV(D1)=(1+0.11)11.15=1.111.15=1.036
- **Present value of D2D₂D2:**PV(D2)=1.3225(1+0.11)2=1.32251.2321=1.073\text{PV}(D₂) = \frac{1.3225}{(1 + 0.11)^2} = \frac{1.3225}{1.2321} = 1.073PV(D2)=(1+0.11)21.3225=1.23211.3225=1.073
- **Present value of P2P₂P2:**PV(P2)=23.14375(1+0.11)2=23.143751.2321=18.788\text{PV}(P₂) = \frac{23.14375}{(1 + 0.11)^2} = \frac{23.14375}{1.2321} = 18.788PV(P2)=(1+0.11)223.14375=1.232123.14375=18.788
Step 4: Calculate the Total Present Value (Stock Price)
The total value of the stock is the sum of the present values of the dividends and the present value of P2P₂P2:
Stock Price=1.036+1.073+18.788=20.897\text{Stock Price} = 1.036 + 1.073 + 18.788 = 20.897Stock Price=1.036+1.073+18.788=20.897
Final Answer:
The value of the stock using the multistage growth model is approximately $20.90.
above content is from chatgpt, the same as mine, so I reckon you are right