Cast your e-ballots* here for bragging rights. For the bonus round, call the market’s reaction to the news.
My call: Obama, no major S&P move (won’t exceed 1% change in either direction)
*note: this is not who you are voting for but who you expect to win
I’ll reduce that to 0.5% in either direction.
Obama, but it won’t be official for a couple of weeks due to FL and OH being very close and voting issues in states affected by Sandy. No clue as to how the market will react.
Romney and a >2% down move.
Do we all agree Romney = big S&P down move?
Why would Romney move the market down?
Obammers, S&P up .5%-1%, assuming no silly Euro news.
bromion - rates. Ben will be gone and i have a feeling we might get an inflation hawk
this. i bet there will be widespread accusations of voter fraud from both sides also. will be another very messy decision, and the winner will be negotiated behind closed doors.
does it matter where the S&P goes immediately after? we’re all fucked in the longrun.
I think Obama will win by less than 60/40 in electoral votes. S&P 500 might go down 1% or so… but it’s not going to be like a flash crash or something. Ohio (also maybe Florida) recount might happen depending on how close the result is… but I doubt that the outcome will change, or if the market will respond at all.
In my opinion, what the winner says right afterwards will matter as much or more than the outcome of the election. The race is pretty close, so neither candidate is going to have overwhelming public support. Once you subtract non-voters, only like 1/3 of the population will have voted for the winner. This could have implications on political gridlock… which is particularly important this year, due to the looming fiscal cliff. The uncertainty prevents businesses from hiring, people from spending, etc.
Both Obama and Romney have been campaigning with the message that the other side is horrible and will destroy the country. They keep saying things like “this election will determine the direction of the country”, i.e. pretty divisive rhetoric. If the winner continues this message, we are in for some frustrating times. However, if the winner shows willingness to make concessions and provides a vision of cooperation, people will be more optimistic and the stock market will go up.
Edit: To add to that, it’s not really clear to me that the candidates have credible divergences in fiscal policy. Romney says he will do lots of things differently, but he is lying or deluded. For instance 20% tax cuts are just not realistic. What’s significant, however, is that the polarized political environment means that people will oppose some policy just because the opposition suggests it - even if they would have supported this policy if it was proposed by their own party. So, the question for me is, are politicians going to stay like this after the election, or are they going to stop the BS and actually get something done?
the race isn’t close… the media is just trying boost ratings. Obama will win by a “landslide”, interested to see how the media will spin his victory and if people will go to the streets to celebrate “Change”. Romney was almost as bad of a candidate as McCain, he never had a chance. People were delusion to think McCain had any chance in 08 and its the same now.
I didn’t follow McCain that closely, but from what I recall, it never appeared as though he was intetionally trying to lose the race. He had that going for him, I’ll give him that.
So Romney is hitting Florida, Virgina, Ohio and New Hampshire today and the President is hitting Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio because they want to perpetuate the media’s myth that it is a close race?
why will Helicopter Ben be out WHEN Romney wins? It was another Rep (GWB) that put him there in the first place.
What are you basing this on? 49/51 Rasmussen poll in Ohio is presumably not a lie. Neither is close to 50/50 in Florida, Virginia, Colorado, etc.
Consider that since electoral college votes come in blocks based on the size of the state. If, for instance, Obama wins both Ohio and Florida, he gets 10% of the electoral college votes. This is a significant % swing, but the probability of this outcome is say, 0.55*0.49, or something like that. A landslide outcome does not mean that the winner had landslide chances. It just means that of the possible states, {Obama landslide, Obama close win, Romney landslide, Romney close win}, the landslide outcomes have significant probability compared to the close win outcomes, even if Obama and Romney have close to even chances. This is due to the discrete nature of electoral college outcomes in swing states.
Romney Wins, Market Up
Eh, the popular vote is going to be very close. Why? because intrade says so.
But yea, Obama wins and no related movement to stock mkt
Intrade is a bit wacky right now - should be very volatile tomorrow
Obviously they aren’t just going to sit back and wait it out… For Romney to win the electoral college all the polls would have to be statistically biased under current methods.
I suspect that Intrade has a slight Obama bias due to the user demographics. But even if there is no bias, 1/3 chance of Romney winning is not insignificant. Also, probabilistic outcome does not imply electoral vote outcome.