The return of the jungle

Water Cooler
#1

The old order is swiftly disintegrating, and strongman politics is again ascendant among the world’s great powers. Countries are brimming with ambition, like tigers eyeing their prey, keen to find every opportunity among the ruins of the old order. Old scores that had to wait can now be settled. Disputed bits of territory can now be retaken. Natural resources can now be seized.

So, it appears that time has finally revealed what we in the third world have known forever, that this period of Western hegemony and American hyperpower was merely a small piece of history, a moment in time that would pass rather than something “natural” that would remain till infinity.

The worlds second largest nation with the second largest continuous history of humanity has broken through with their technological prowess now providing maximum deterrence against hypothetical American aggression. In some aspects, they have caught up with the Americans and ponder how to pull ahead, in some aspects they are ahead and in some far behind. Nevertheless, the machine emerging here is far more sophisticated than the machine the Democratic-Socialists of Europe or the hyper-Capitalists of America have produced

The worlds largest nation with the longest continuous history in the world is growing at speed but their societal problems of feudalism, tribalism etc seem to have them stuck in second gear. The nationalists who seem now have a stong-hold in their society are embracing neo-liberalism to break the inertia of their society whilst returning to their philosophical roots as guidance for the overarching culture. Will the last of the pagans return to their status of what Keyserling stated " Hinduism at its best has spoken the only truth about the way to self-realization in the full sense of the word" or will they go the way of the Aztecs - thrown into the dustbins of history

Smaller nations too are marching driven by their own needs no longer under fear of the American bullet. Iran bombastic as ever may have tried too much too soon and lies in tatters, Russia continues to grind away in Ukraine and ambitious South-East Asia led by Indonesia continues to flirt with its chinese roots.

BRICS nations divided by so much are walking in-step to create alternatives to petro-dollar warfare

and finally America against America - the country whose people for so long believed their culture was supreme now face some tough questions don’t they? As they have found that despite what they were told the world does not revolve around the USA, and rule by force only goes so far. A culture that became too enamored by science and too little spirituality seems to have created a nation of narcissists with everyone talking but no one listening. The virulent strain of racism that always existed under the surface now seems to have emerged again with Mr Trump in a different form but still as crude as before. Except this time, they are not oppressing 15% of their population, this time their disdain for the so-called “Third World” is being observed by Third Worlders themselves who still have living memories of the brutality of colonialism.

Their so called savior whilst swinging the pendulum away from the strange trajectory their culture was taking is at the end of the day another grifter, a man who loves the sound of his own voice a little too much. Who can save this culture when they look down on silence as weakness and humility as timidness?

At the end of it all, are we destined for war?

#2

We may be moving toward a global conflict, but it’s more likely that we’re entering an era of continuous low-level “cold” conflict and competition—economic warfare combined with occasional mid-sized proxy wars. The United States, China, India, and to some extent Russia, are vying for global influence.

While each of these countries faces its own challenges, I’m betting on the U.S. to emerge as the long-term winner. Despite its flaws, the U.S. has a system that is inherently more self-correcting than its top-down competitors. China, for instance, has abandoned the very system that fueled its rise: the de facto internal democracy within the Politburo Standing Committee, the Politburo, and the Central Committee. Under Xi Jinping, power has been centralized, dissent silenced, and the multilateral decision-making process dismantled - history shows that this kind of power centralization usually doesn’t end well.

Nassim Taleb once observed that democracies may appear fragile on the surface but are actually antifragile, able to adapt and grow stronger under pressure. In contrast, autocracies seem resilient from the outside but can collapse suddenly when faced with significant challenges. I kind of agree with Taleb.

1 Like
#3

I’m betting on the U.S. to emerge as the long-term winner.

I think this precisely demonstrates the limited thinking of the Western mind. Born from Aristotle : There is a right and a wrong and exacerbated by American culture. There doesn’t have to be a “winner” and “loser”. If anything the norm of history is multiple winners or in other terms multi-polarity.

Every system has its pros and cons, whilst every attempt at centralization has failed we must remember that the technology was never there to support it. Centralization during the Soviet Union meant layers of bureaucracy which opened up doors to corruption. A telegram sent from Moscow was not what was received in Vladivostok.

Now, the technology is there, information from Beijing reaches Inner Mongolia in seconds, the feedback loops are quicker. If anything, China has created a system with the pros of democracy whilst eliminating its weaknesses

The American system which you say is superior and maybe it is but at the end of the day it is built on the supremacy of the individual. Except humans have in-built flaws in us which needs to be managed imo. If the American system and culture views that as a no-go zone then the weakness always remains. I think that is what we are seeing play out in America in real-time. A disconnected elite living in their own bubble, the rise of grifters playing into the fears of the low-class, a middle-class who believe the grifters are on their side. History shows us what happens in this scenario - the empire falls under its own weight

#4

Well, not going to start arguing about what the term “long term winner” means. Just want to point out that you went on to describe a scenario of a distinct “winner” and a “loser” - a very binary view where the U.S “implodes under its own weight”.

Interesting point but you’re also describing China here. How will China be able to avoid this fate?

I really have to disagree here. Up to 2014 this was probably correct (see my first post). Since 2014, the built-in democracy in the decision making process has been dismantled and power has been centralized around Xi. After Mao, the Chinese said “never again will we be led by one single autocrat”. History tends to repeat itself and this is what we’re seeing here.