Anchoring Trap Status Quo Trap Recallability Trap Confirming Evidence Trap blah blah blah… I can never get these things right. Damn it!!!
Bear trap
Prudence Trap
itstoohot Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Bear trap is it jk or there is such a trap
No Bear Trap heer…but that’s what I feel like I’m in when trying to pick between one of the answers.
Prudence and overconficence
I think they are quite okay Anchoring trap - not adjusting your prior views and fully incorporating new information Status Quo trap - maintaining the same views or opinions. Differ from the above as the achoring trap guy revises his opinion but not fully and is anchored to his prior views … ok please correct this one Recallability - They often recall good past performance and are hence biased. Also resulting in confidence and overlook of past mistakes Confirming evidence - rather than looking out for opposing views, the analyst may be on the look out for views or opinions or research supporting his ideas. Research should be independent and objective. Prudence Trap - Trying to not go against the crowd. if the consensus rates a stock a buy, you don’t want to be the odd one and rate it a sell. This results in missing out on your fiduciary duty :)) which is to maintain prudence - in your research and opinions Overconfidence - Hmm this one is similar to the recallability - fine line here may be - Overconfidence in one’s ability results in being biased about your skills and ability to analyse, overlooking your mistakes and not assesing objectively are the outcomes
sand trap? i’ll take a drop…right over here on the fairway
your recallability smells like cognitive dissonance, i thought recallability was more associated with bad events
Great way to remember it for bald people: You guys must know of Propecia right? The drug Proscar is the same as Propecia but 5x the potency. PROSCAr P - Prudence R - Recallability O - Overconfidence S - Status quo C - Confirming evidence A - Anchoring R - x p.s. I’m not bald, baldies
How about the issues in making forecasts? Anyone think of a good way to memorize them? Limitations with economic data Misinterpretation of correlations Psychological traps Data measurement error and bias Non-repeating patterns Non-constant data Model input uncertainty Limitations with historical data - asynchronous data I think I’m missing one…
mouse trap?