Essentially I’m long China equities , while simultaneously long American denialism.
Thinking it’s time to exit the later, especially since better uses of cash are now opening up…and US can’t deny forever.
looks like pa was right all along
Cold War pt2 —so ball is in America’s court, pull the trigger on $500B tariffs and China destroying the S&P, or not? 
Waiting…
Trump winning looks like China wants to negotiate
US market is not going down because corporate earnings have increased 20% year over year, and a consumer tax through $50 billion of tariffs pales in comparison to other policy effects (for instance $1 trillion in recent tax cuts). In a mature economy, valuations are largely based on businesses that are largely already in place (3% GDP growth), compared to businesses that might or might not exist in the future (7% GDP growth). Reciprocal cuts in trade will obviously hurt more for an economy that is 50% the size (China) of the larger economy (US), and will be worse for the economy which has a trade surplus.
China will have to negotiate. Mathematically, they cannot withstand a long trade argument with the US. If their GDP growth falls and more state owned companies start going bankrupt, Xi will be pushed out of power. He must either come up with an agreement now or risk losing his position. Sure, they can possibly wait 2 years and see if Trump is not re elected, but the economic effects to China will be apparent by then, US’s economy is doing awesome, and Trump’s China policy is popular among voters. It’s more likely that the US’s advantage will be even stronger then.
Mathematically the US can’t withstand a long argument with CN. Trump will be pushed out of power, voices already gathering against him. He must either come up with an agreement or risk losing his position. The US “buying GDP with debt,” in order to prop up the economy while they fight an impossible war, can only last so long, and will only make them weaker with time. As damage hits home Trumpers will find out they got lied to, just like the Obama chumps. They know time is not on their side…
…which is why they are playing desperation moves now, and keep saying “we CAN’T do this any longer, this CAN NOT BE PUT OFF.” They signal to us their 3-5yr spreadsheets (the longest the US looks ahead) finally show trigger events which bring down their financial house of cards. So what do they do? Opt out of the world’s largest market this century (the rest of the world continues to align with CN, they know who’s the future). And pile on more debt, just making the magnitude of the coming default larger (signaling they know, and just don’t care anymore, as a default on $50T or $60T, makes no difference). And more lies to their people, boomers aren’t getting their $40T in social insurance, it will be oldies dying in the streets, and Marxist revolution (which already grows).
CN can do any number of things; 1) hit back, generally not their way, 2) do nothing, their usual move, or 3) give in and appease, let the enemy choke on success, also their usual move. All three S/T moves, lead to a L/T win, as the global macro movements this century are on their side. Non-action while the desperate giant continues to collapse, the way of the sage. [insert pipe smoking emoticon here]
All I can say is—told ya so. 
Sry PA, ohai’s argument wins. Your argument is riddled with bias, tunnel vision, and hyperbole. You usually offer some decent counter-arguments but this hog wash you’ve been spewing lately is weak.
Remember kids, I’ve been calling this for 10yrs, while you all missed the biggest trend of the century (not hyperbole) while engaging in intellectual “arguments.” So I’m the authority here. Your minds are too filled with fake news data points to analyze the real data points, same reason you missed it in the first place.
Another point on Trump’s political weakness—at some point tariffs are going to hit CPI / inflation , crushing any wage growth. Then people will realize that “hitting China with tariffs” is actually just the government taking their money. And that Trump hasn’t gotten them anywhere, in fact he’s actually set them back.
The economic stats are all lies, and it’s becoming more difficult to keep the lies straight. People are catching on, and so they need to lie more (Trump) to hold the Ponzi together, for awhile…
Ok continue to short the US old man. Good luck.
lol i did read a research today that said washing machines experience a 20% rise in prices in last 3 mos due to the trade tariffs. trump essentially lowered the taxes for the rich, and through this price war increased the prices for everyone else, and since the poor pay more for their shit as a portion of income, these trade wars made the poor poorer. lol republicans who arent a part of the top 10% of the population are really dumb 
also keep in mind that the customer is always right. and us is the customer so china really needs to bend over to trump’s iron will or he might incite the sleeping giant to a manufacturing renaissance not seen since we bombed the shit out of the axis powers.
y’all worry about stupid sh!t.
here’s the problem with your “analysis” pa. it is backwards and you’re worried about the wrong country.
you say the US is unsustainably growing GDP by growing its debt. except that the US is growing GDP at ~5% nominally and growing its total debt at ~3% nominally while china is growing GDP at ~9% nominally while growing its total debt at ~15% nominally. one is unsustainable, the other is not. china is solely growing because of debt growth. nobody knows what will happen when the insanely rapid debt growth reverses. you can say all you want about the unsustainability of us entitlement programs but at least its economy is outpacing its debt growth. and it’s not like china is lightly levered. total debt to gdp in china and the us is already comparable.
Exactly, it’s the same old economic system of corporatism —collect wealth via infliction of externalities on the masses, and distribute it to the top. That’s the “prime directive” in the US system, which dictates events, the rest is just noise. And it’s 50yrs of this decision making, that created their current situation…yet still they don’t address their internal broken system…just more of it, and blame China [facepalm].
Yawn. I’ve already discussed USG math in depth. From here US debt shoots straight up—rapidly growing neg-CF from boomer retirement and growing interest payments, triggers default/hyperinflation. It is not sustainable, even per their own financial statements where they say “it’s not sustainable.” So now you are flag waving, while also calling the USG a liar…try to reconcile that! LOL
China is young, like US 1950s, and still has time to grow out of it. Obviously CN is not “solely growing because of debt growth,” you’re just making things up. Hey guys, try real financial analysis, not nationalism! 
yo pa do i hold ashr or buy more?
Trump’s problem now— he pre-ejaculated his whole load (hoping that shock would force a quick deal), and so A-shares are perhaps bottomed out…meanwhile China hasn’t done anything yet, Xi has a full gun, and S&P sits there with zero risk priced in.
So I bought some last Friday, and more early this week when the final tariff-load was announced. But now I’m done (saving space for end of the global bull, and sustained Cold War). For fun watching Xiaomi (HK 1810), multiple 10% up days since launch, not my thing…but lots of action in Asia the long-SPX crowd are missing.
i think its better for rich people to have money, cuz they actually invest it to make the world a better place!
Now Trump’s desperation is really showing.
He already shot all his bullets, so he’s like “well, now 25% tariffs on $200 billion!!!”
Just crazy talk now, trying to scare people into a deal. When someone does this, I instantly go into do nothing mode. He wants to hurry (afraid of something), so don’t hurry.
Now that he has started this, the clock is running—actuals on economic damage are coming in month to month, more advanced analytics on risks are coming out (ending the global bull, recession, etc), political opposition on the left/right will grow.
Dem can use this, those proposed tariffs will decimate the puny “tax cut” the citizens got, people will be worse off than before Trump…and with default on their social security and medicare looming from the government-subsidized corporate profits. Say he nukes CN’s GDP, then the global market gets nuked, and Trump caused the recession. So many bad possible outcomes here if he can’t close the deal fast.
There are reasons no US politician has ever messed China.
Apparently I used my meme too soon, I stand corrected.