Cathy Moran, CFA, is estimating a value for an infrequently traded bond with six years to maturity, an annual coupon of 7%, and a single-B credit rating. Moran obtains yields-to-maturity for more liquid bonds with the same credit rating:
5% coupon, eight years to maturity, yielding 7.20%.
6.5% coupon, five years to maturity, yielding 6.40%.
The infrequently traded bond is most likely trading at: ?
Answer:
Using linear interpolation, the yield on a bond with six years to maturity should be 6.40% + (1 / 3)(7.20% – 6.40%) = 6.67%. A bond with a 7% coupon and a yield of 6.67% is at a premium to par value.
My question: Please explain why the “1/3” is used.
This is one where your intuition can lead you astray. You might think that the ⅓ weight goes with 5 years and the ⅔ weight with 8 years (because 6 is ⅓ of the way from 5 to 8, and ⅔ of the way from 8 to 5).
However, if you draw a time line with 5 years, 6 years, and 8 years in anything close to proper scale, you’ll see that 6 is closer to 5 than to 8, so 5 gets the bigger weight and 8 gets the smaller weight. It would be a lot easier to see if instead of a 6-year bond you had a 5.1-year bond: 5.1 years is right on top of 5 years, so it should get a weight of 29/30, and 8 years get a weight of 1/30.