bubble
AM: 60% +/- 5%
2/4/4
PM: 67.5% +/- 5%
1/5/4
if I remember correctly…
i think there were about 6 questions in AM that i felt “good” about… but not sure if any of them are 100% or 70% or less??. another 2 “possibly” zero (maybe some 25-50%) depending on partial credit. and 3 that could be 50%
in PM i remember 30 or so questions that i felt “good” about and i squeaked at least another 10. from doing multiple mocks some times grading them i just got lucky and got a 6/6 but this PM felt hard
AM: 3/5/2
PM:2/3/5
AM 2/4/4
PM 2/3/5
AM: 0/0/10
PM: 0/0/10
Good for you dude, all AFers are waiting for you to post your result matrices on 8/8.
Bad time management in the AM but did pretty well in the PM
AM 3/3/3
PM 0/2/8
In the PM I’m confident I scored 6/6 in atleast 6 topics
Does anyone think I have a chance to make it through?
DRAW IS NEXT TUESDAY……
AM: Number of Topics <=50/ 50-70 / >70 PM: Number of Topics <=50/ 50-70 / >70
paqui AM:3/5/2 PM:1/6/2
accountingnerd AM:3 / 4 / 3 PM:1 / 3 / 6
onlysimon AM 1/6/3 PM 2/4/4
Moh4 AM 2/3/5 PM 2/4/4
googs1484 AM 1/4/5 PM 1/2/7
snowcat AM 2/2/6 PM 0/2/8
philconx AM 3/4/3 PM 3/3/4
RLKW34 AM 3/3/4 PM 1/2/7
govt_cheese AM 2/4/4 PM 1/5/4
FlashForward AM - slightly worse than 1/2/7(My L1 and L2 score) PM - better than 1/2/7.
mburger AM: 1/4/5 PM: 1/3/6
Flashback AM Expect 2-3 of <=50, 2 of >70, and rest in the mid interval. PM Expect 1 of <=50, 3 of >70, rest in the mid interval.
Infidel Cash Flo AM: 0/3/7 PM: 0/7/3
student_99 AM: 3 / 4 / 3 PM: 1 / 5 / 4
Angerfist AM: 3/3/4 PM:2/3/5 Pass
Mikewinner AM PM 55% 82% 180 180 99 147 PASS 68%
Hedgee AM : 60+/-5 PM: 0/3/7 Should score around 67-73.
HugeGamma
AM: 60% +/- 5% 2/4/4
PM: 67.5% +/- 5% 1/5/4
YmsCFA AM: 3/5/2 PM:2/3/5
Rising Alpha AM 2/4/4 PM 2/3/5
Killua AM: 0/0/10 PM: 0/0/10
Study2pass AM 3/3/3 PM 0/2/8
Always give worst case scenario. Thus, the results might be as expected or better than expected. Cheers!
The problem with worst case scenario is you really do not know what it is with the AM (do not understand any point system ), might, as well have some optimism (without being too over the top) as where you think you may fall… AM can turn out to be much worser… with PM you probably can make some guesses.
Well. I agree. AM is hard to estimate. I use some comparison related to previous years pass matrices of candidates on this forum and some measures as candidate’s manner of studying (spent hours, practicing AM, mocks rounds, etc) to forecast what may expect with AM.
For me to do this…is too much analysis… not knowing how each of these aspects may translate to different results for different candidates based on individualistic traits (intelligence included)… just went with some gut instinct …knowing I may be too far away from the reality.
Well. I expected better performance and overall feeling was quite less confidence after L3 related to feel after L1 & L2 when I was strongly confident. However, my personal review of own performance remained stable since the moment I left hall. I’m ready on both scenarios and still my estimated chances to pass are a bit higher than failing. We’ll see. I know my weak spots and already have a further plan but hopefully I’ll throw it to the garbage.
ah look at that both flashback and flashforward working together to estimate AM score 
Looking back, rolling forward. Be always ready for disaster. Nothing should surprise us. We serve the people.
Thanks for the summary FlashForward !
so
either it s gonna be hooray or a m…f…g day ?
AM: 5/2/3
PM: 0/4/6
About 50 hrs left. The Colonel or the decedent?
despite all these estimates (20+) you still can’t definitively say if who will pass or fail for most scores… the ranges are too broad
Volatility of estimated results too high. Seems there is a presence of biases. Wishful thinking.
DRAW IS NEXT TUESDAY……
AM: Number of Topics <=50/ 50-70 / >70 PM: Number of Topics <=50/ 50-70 / >70
paqui AM:3/5/2 PM:1/6/2
accountingnerd AM:3 / 4 / 3 PM:1 / 3 / 6
onlysimon AM 1/6/3 PM 2/4/4
Moh4 AM 2/3/5 PM 2/4/4
googs1484 AM 1/4/5 PM 1/2/7
snowcat AM 2/2/6 PM 0/2/8
philconx AM 3/4/3 PM 3/3/4
RLKW34 AM 3/3/4 PM 1/2/7
govt_cheese AM 2/4/4 PM 1/5/4
FlashForward AM - slightly worse than 1/2/7(My L1 and L2 score) PM - better than 1/2/7.
mburger AM: 1/4/5 PM: 1/3/6
Flashback AM Expect 2-3 of <=50, 2 of >70, and rest in the mid interval. PM Expect 1 of <=50, 3 of >70, rest in the mid interval.
Infidel Cash Flo AM: 0/3/7 PM: 0/7/3
student_99 AM: 3 / 4 / 3 PM: 1 / 5 / 4
Angerfist AM: 3/3/4 PM:2/3/5 Pass
Mikewinner AM PM 55% 82% 180 180 99 147 PASS 68%
Hedgee AM : 60+/-5 PM: 0/3/7 Should score around 67-73.
HugeGamma AM: 60% +/- 5% 2/4/4 PM: 67.5% +/- 5% 1/5/4
YmsCFA AM: 3/5/2 PM:2/3/5
Rising Alpha AM 2/4/4 PM 2/3/5
Killua AM: 0/0/10 PM: 0/0/10
Study2pass AM 3/3/3 PM 0/2/8
Khalifah AM: 5/2/3 PM: 0/4/6