The Europeans are delusional about politics. They said Brexit only had 10% chance, and it happened. They say they welcome all immigrants to your face, then 60% approve Muslim ban in anonymous polls. Now, you are saying Economist says 1% chance of Le Pen winning? She will probably lose, but that’s really being too complacent. How many times do they need to be shocked before realizing what is happening in the real world?
Le pen will probably win the first round, but will lose to macron in the second round. I don’t think there’s way she can get 50% of the votes in the second round unless there’s a big Muslim terrorist attacks days before.
Le Pen will win and here’s why. The French - despite stating they do not negotiate with terrorist - have an ‘contract’ to harbor groups with the agreement they will not attack french soil. Obviously, that hasnt worked in their favor and the people are revolting. The refugees are only an ancillary component to that.
I think Le Pen has a tougher shot than that Dem running for that sea in Georgia. Pulled 48% in the first round but I would imagine repubs will unite behind their candidate and keep him out of the seat. Same could happen with Le Pen and shes polling with way lower numbers. Who knows, we’ll see its not like anyone really knows whats happening its a probabilistic event.
Macron’s wife was his elementary school teacher or something. Not sure if that makes the situation more or less unusual.
Anyway, it appears that not only did Macron make it to the second round, as many hoped, but he also won the most votes of the four leading candidates. This is quite positive for us non French. France has really no hope of making material positive change for the rest of us; we can just hope that they don’t F up further. Macron does not really have a novel policy approach - he will just end up modeling himself on Hollande, and much of the status quo will be intact.
Yes, that is true. However, the difference between European elections and the US’ in particular is that US change has the potential to stimulate economic growth through deregulation. It remains to be said if Trump will deliver that positive change, or if protectionism and general weirdness will outweigh the regulatory relief. The best that Europe can do is to hold together its fragile union, and we can only hope that they do just that.